市场的发展规律经常演绎着“繁盛-淘汰-繁盛”的大轮回，这是在技术和市场双重作用下的结果。技术的发展带来的是市场的繁盛，而技术相对成熟之后的恶性竞争却导致市场遭遇瓶颈。于是，技术的革新无疑将再次成为救“市”主!
市场的秋天在收获的同时，也恰是一个节点，新的一个轮回就此开始!
DVR产品早在上世纪九十年代出现，随着视频编码压缩算法如Mpeg2/4、 H.264的进步，近年来出现了迅猛发展的势头。有数据显示，2005年国内DVR销售200万路，2007年国内DVR销售近800万路。然而，虽然 DVR的市场形势一片繁荣，越来越多的业内人士和厂商却对DVR产品未来的市场发展前景表示担忧，唱衰的论调层出不穷，“冬天论”频见于报端。细数DVR 市场的发展便不难看出，这些担心是不无道理的。
首先，DVR产品在国内的价格战愈演愈烈，价格战往往是繁盛市场下最致命的现象。 2009年第一季度，在国内安防产品的最大渠道分销来源地广东，主流DVR品牌厂商对基于CIF的DVR价格调整的幅度可以用跳水来形容，8路、16路产品近乎于加工硬成本，而本该居于价值核心的DVR研发价值被完全忽略。其次，由于当前市场同类DVR产品过多，公安部三所为避免恶性竞争出台了准入杠杆机制，基于CIF的DVR将被停止进行安防产品资格认证检测，迫使DVR从CIF进行转移。
可见，DVR市场严重的产品同质化以及就此引发的恶性竞争问题，已经让人感觉到浓浓萧瑟的秋意。不日而临的冬天更是所有业内人士所不愿面对的。对于市场的中小制造商而言，继续降价将是唯一选择。通过对生产成本的进一步控制压缩，满足一部分低质低价的市场需要，也不失为一条生路。[nextpage]
对于规模型制造商而言，增强产品性能，推陈出新是一种解决之道。可以预见，在CIF 之后，基于D1技术的产品很有可能成为DVR的主流。但是我们必须看到，国内大量DVR制造商居于产业链下游，自身却并无研发能力， DVR最关键的研发核心技术被掌控在几家芯片厂商手里。而目前这些芯片厂商基于D1的方案却并不成熟，这是DVR性能增强之路的最大障碍。
目前，一些实力型的制造商已经在尝试将产品功能增加，或与其它产品结合“跨界”、“ 混搭”，比如推出数字和模拟混合的DVR，甚至将视频智能分析功能集成进去。但这种新功能产品同样有着致命的缺陷：将DVR数字和模拟摄像机混搭需要强大的CPU处理能力，这是原来以数字DSP或者FPGA的视频编码为主的架构的CPU无法承受的，即使技术上把CPU等模块增强，DVR性价比也会降低，将无优势可言。
以上几种改良都不足以成为拯救DVR的诺亚之舟，我们相信DVR的发展确实已经面临一个节点，这也是符合产品和市场发展规律的，一种产品的发展到了后期，自身的改良已经很难适应市场，往往将会由新一代的产品进行替代。就像以前的矩阵风光无限，但后期纵使改良出数字矩阵等多种形态，也难改变被DVR替代的市场命运。
硕果之后见萧瑟，萧瑟之后是寒冬。偌大的市场空间，DVR未来虽然仍将留有一席之地，但主流地位也必将无存。那么谁将接替DVR成为市场新宠?[nextpage]
全数字产品目前尚难完成抢班夺权。因为今天的技术，尚无法从本质上克服延时问题，性价比也并不乐观，还远未达到可与模拟产品相提并论的地步。真正能够取代DVR的产品，将是介于模拟和数字技术之间的产品。它应该既兼容模拟系统的高画质、无延时的高品质;又并蓄数字系统的网络化、灵活性;同时应支持当前主流的高清视频、智能分析等关键业务特性。这样的产品，其形态应该符合高可靠、网络化应用，其性价比更应该满足安防多种应用的需求。基于这样的市场基础，行业内已开始出现如Super DVR这类的产品，它超脱原有DVR设计理念而诞生，可提供超越模拟系统和数字系统的解决方案，具备完全替代模拟矩阵、报警主机、DVR、NVR、智能分析、数字管理平台等设备的能力。
目前，在公安部和工信部的倡导下，由公安部一所和中星微电子作为组长单位正在引领制定安防监控行业的国家标准《安全防范监控数字视音频编***(SVAC)技术要求》，以规范市场发展、并提高我国安防产业的核心竞争力。市场需要像 Super DVR这样，以SVAC技术标准为设计核心的数字智能视频技术的产品。依据安防监控市场需求，能够为用户提供一体化解决方案，更能充分满足未来业务扩展的多元化应用需求，符合安防技术智能化建设的现状与趋势。
DVR的秋天虽然来了，一个全新的安防产品时代更将随之到来!
The law of the development of the market often deduces the great cycle of "flourishing - elimination - flourishing", which is the result of the dual role of technology and market. The development of technology brings about the prosperity of the market, but the vicious competition after the relatively mature technology leads to the bottleneck of the market. Therefore, technological innovation will no doubt become the "market" again!
The autumn of the market is harvested at the same time, it is also a node, a new cycle began!
DVR products appeared in the 1990s. With the progress of video coding compression algorithms such as mpeg2/4 and h.264, there has been a rapid development trend in recent years. According to some data, two million DVRS were sold in China in 2005, and nearly eight million DVRS were sold in China in 2007. However, although the market situation of DVR a boom, but more and more people in the industry and manufacturers of DVR products market development prospect of the future, bad-mouthing arguments emerge in endlessly, "winter" emerged in frequency. The development of the DVR market is not hard to see why these concerns are justified.
First, DVR products are facing an increasingly fierce domestic price war, often the most deadly in a booming market. In the first quarter of 2009, the biggest source of channel distribution in the domestic security products in guangdong, the mainstream DVR brands of DVR based on CIF price adjustment of amplitude can be used to diving to describe, 8, 16 road products close to processing hard costs, and should have been in the core of research and development of DVR value was completely ignored. Second, because the current market is too similar DVR products, three by the ministry of public security to avoid vicious competition has access to a lever mechanism, based on CIF DVR security product certification tests will be stopped, force for DVR from CIF transfer.
It can be seen that the serious product homogeneity of DVR market and the vicious competition problem caused by it have made people feel the autumn of thick and thin. The winter that does not come soon is the person of all course of study is not willing to face. For small and medium-sized manufacturers in the market, continued price cuts will be the only option. Through further control and compression of production costs, it is also a promising way to meet the needs of some low-quality and low-price markets. [nextpage]
For model manufacturers, the solution is to enhance product performance and introduce new products. It can be predicted that after CIF, products based on D1 technology are likely to become the mainstream of DVR. However, we must see that a large number of DVR manufacturers in China are located in the lower part of the industrial chain, but they do not have the ability to develop their own products. The most important core technologies of DVR are controlled by several chip manufacturers. However, the current d1-based solutions of these chip manufacturers are not mature, which is the biggest obstacle to DVR performance enhancement.
At present, some brand manufacturers has been trying to increase product function, or combined with other products "crossover", "mix build", such as digital and analog hybrid DVR, even to integrate the intelligent video analysis function. But this kind of new functional products also has a fatal flaw: the DVR digital and analog camera mashup need powerful CPU processing power, this is the original is given priority to with digital video coding of DSP and FPGA architecture CPU can't afford to, even if the CPU module, such as strengthening technology, DVR price will also reduce, there can be no advantage to speak of.
Several improved enough to be above the boat of Noah to save the DVR, we believe that the development of the DVR has indeed face a node, which is in conformity with the product and the market law of development, the development of a product in the later period, its improvement is hard to adapt to the market, often will be the new generation of products to replace. Just like the previous matrix, it has a great view, but even if the digital matrix and other forms are improved in the later stage, it is difficult to change the market fate replaced by DVR.
After the fruit see bleak, bleak after the cold winter. In such a large market space, DVR will still have its place in the future, but it will also have no mainstream position. So who will replace DVR as the new darling?
Full digital products are still difficult to complete the shift right. Because today's technology, in essence, cannot overcome the problem of delay, cost performance is not optimistic, far from being comparable to analog products. The real alternative to DVR will be something between analog and digital technology. It should be compatible with the high quality of simulation system and the high quality without delay. The network and flexibility of digital system are also stored. At the same time, the current mainstream hd video, intelligent analysis and other key business features should be supported. Such products should conform to high reliability and network applications, and their cost performance should meet the needs of security and defense applications. Basis based on the market, the industry has begun to appear, such as Super DVR this kind of product, it rises above the original DVR design concept born, can provide beyond the analog system and digital system solutions, entirely replace analog matrix and alarm host, DVR, NVR, intelligence analysis, digital management platform of equipment capacity.
At present, under the ministry of public security and the ministry of advocacy, one by the ministry of public security and a pioneer as leader of the unit is leading the national standards for security surveillance industry, the safety monitoring of digital audio encoding * * * (SVAC) technical requirements, to regulate the market development, and improve the core competitiveness of China's security industry. The market needs products like Super DVR, which take SVAC technology standard as the core design of digital intelligent video technology. Security monitoring based on market demand, to provide users with integrated solutions, can fully meet the diversity of future business expansion application requirements, in line with the current situation of the construction of intelligent security technology and trends.
The fall of DVR is coming, and a new era of security products will follow.
